A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
