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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still